A multi model composition framework based on bayesian model comparision and its application in soft sensor modeling

In order to improve the prediction performance of single model based soft sensor, the features of the current model combination frameworksby analynizing, a new multi model combination framework based on the bayesian model comparison is proposed. In this framework, fuzzy c means clustering to the historial data is used to analyze the production states, then the prediction performance of sub models at different states are compared based on bayesian model comparison. The comparing results are the basis of the model combination stratery at different states. With adapting cross validation predictive distribution, the samples got from the trained models are used to successfully reduce computation load of model comparion.The framework has obtained good results in the practical application.     

Cembranoid, Steroid, and Sesquiterpenoid Derivatives from the South China Sea Soft Coral Sinularia numerosa

Two new cembranoids, namely, sinumerolides A and B （1 and 2）, one new steroid, 7fl-hydroxygorgosterol （7）, along with four known cembranoid derivatives （3-6）, four known steroids （8-11）, and four known...     

Developments in Swedish forest policy and administration – from a “policy of restriction” toward a “policy of cooperation”

Abstract

New tools and forms of cooperation at the landscape level are needed in order for forestry and environmental conservation to co-exist in areas with many land owners. Awareness has existed for several years in Sweden that cooperation at the landscape level is essential for protecting areas of high environmental value. This awareness has come to expression in several projects and initiatives. One of these projects is the Östra Vätterbranterna Partnership, a successful example of the new orientation toward environmental management as formulated in the government bill Sustainable protection of nature areas: new working methods with a focus on collaboration and increased dialog by involving more actors and utilizing a greater combination of steering instruments. This development resonates with the growing trend toward deregulation and less state intervention in environmental management, implying a stronger emphasis on new governance structures and market-driven processes. This paper examines the preconditions for a development toward governance-oriented forms of steering in the area of environmental policy and law, with specific emphasis on the protection of forestry areas with high environmental value. Paralleling this development, the transformation of environmental public administration is analyzed, using a model representing three different perspectives on administration's role, values and meaning, showing state action's progressive transition from “rowing” to “steering” to “serving” and facilitating.     

Effect of fungal exposure on the strength of thermally modified Norway spruce and Scots pine

Abstract

Thermal modification at elevated temperatures changes the chemical, biological and physical properties of wood. In this study, the effects of the level of thermal modification and the decay exposure (natural durability against soft-rot microfungi) on the modulus of elasticity (MOE) and modulus of rupture (MOR) of the sapwood and heartwood of Scots pine and Norway spruce were investigated with a static bending test using a central loading method in accordance with EN 408 (1995). The results were compared with four reference wood species: Siberian larch, bangkirai, merbau and western red cedar. In general, both the thermal modification and the decay exposure decreased the strength properties. On average, the higher the thermal modification temperature, the more MOE and MOR decreased with unexposed samples and increased with decayed samples, compared with the unmodified reference samples. The strength of bangkirai was least reduced in the group of the reference wood species. On average, untreated wood material will be stronger than thermally modified wood material until wood is exposed to decaying fungi. Thermal modification at high temperatures over 210°C very effectively prevents wood from decay; however, strength properties are then affected by thermal modification itself.     

Decay resistance of sapwood and heartwood of untreated and thermally modified Scots pine and Norway spruce compared with some other wood species

Abstract

Thermal modification has been developed for an industrial method to increase the biological durability and dimensional stability of wood. In this study the effects of thermal modification on resistance against soft- and brown-rot fungi of sapwood and heartwood of Scots pine and Norway spruce were investigated using laboratory test methods. Natural durability against soft-rot microfungi was determined according to CEN/TS 15083-2 (2005) by measuring the mass loss and modulus of elasticity (MOE) loss after an incubation period of 32 weeks. An agar block test was used to determine the resistance to two brown-rot fungi using two exposure periods. In particular, the effect of the temperature of the thermal modification was studied, and the results were compared with results from untreated pine and spruce samples. The decay resistance of reference untreated wood species (Siberian larch, bangkirai, merbau and western red cedar) was also studied in the soft-rot test. On average, the soft-rot and brown-rot tests gave quite similar results. In general, the untreated heartwood of pine was more resistant to decay than the sapwood of pine and the sapwood and heartwood of spruce. Thermal modification increased the biological durability of all samples. The effect of thermal modification seemed to be most effective within pine heartwood. However, very high thermal modification temperature over 230°C was needed to reach resistance against decay comparable with the durability classes of “durable” or “very durable” in the soft-rot test. The brown-rot test gave slightly better durability classes than the soft-rot test. The most durable untreated wood species was merbau, the durability of which could be evaluated as equal to the durability class “moderately durable”.     

Meroterpenes from Marine Invertebrates: Structures,Occurrence, and Ecological Implications

Meroterpenes are widely distributed among marine organisms; they are particularly abundant within brown algae, but other important sources include microorganisms and invertebrates. In the present review the structures and bioactivities of meroterpenes from marine invertebrates, mainly sponges and tunicates, are summarized. More than 300 molecules, often complex and with unique skeletons originating from intra- and inter-molecular cyclizations, and/or rearrangements, are illustrated. The reported syntheses are mentioned. The issue of a potential microbial link to their biosynthesis is also shortly outlined.     

Cytotoxic and Antibacterial Cembranoids from a South China Sea Soft Coral,Lobophytum sp

Chemical examination of a South China Sea soft coral Lobophytum sp. led to the isolation of three new α-methylene-γ-lactone-containing cembranoids, (1R*,3R*,4R*,14R*,7E,11E)-3,4-epoxycembra-7,11,15(17)-trien-16,14-olide (1), (1R*,7S*,14S*,3E,11E)-7-hydroperoxycembra-3,8(19),11,15(17)-tetraen-16,14-olide (2), and (1R*,7S*,14S*,3E,11E)-18-acetoxy-7-hydroperoxycembra-3,8(19),11,15(17)-tetraen-16,14-olide (3), along with eleven known analogues 4–14. The structures of the new compounds were elucidated through extensive spectroscopic analysis, including 1D and 2D NMR data. Compounds 1–3 exhibited moderate cytotoxic activity against the selected tumor cell lines. Moreover, 2 and 3 were found to be moderate inhibitors against the bacteria S. aureus and S. pneumoniae.     

No Promoting Effect of Ethyl Tertiary-butyl Ether (ETBE) on Rat Urinary Bladder Carcinogenesis Initiated with N-Butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl)nitrosamine

The effects of ethyl tertiary-butyl ether (ETBE) on two-stage urinary bladder carcinogenesis in male F344 rats initiated with N-butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl)nitrosamine (BBN) were investigated at various dose levels with regard to possible promoting activity. Groups of 30 rats were given drinking water containing 500 ppm BBN, as an initiator, for 4 weeks and starting one week thereafter received ETBE by gavage (daily, 7 days/week) at dose levels of 0 (control), 100, 300, 500 or 1000 mg/kg/day until experimental week 36. No statistically significant differences in incidences of preneoplastic lesions, papillomas, and carcinomas of the urinary bladder were evident in rats treated with 100–1000 mg/kg/day ETBE as compared with control values. Furthermore, the average numbers of preneoplastic or neoplastic lesions per unit length of basement membrane in rats given 100–1000 mg/kg/day ETBE were also comparable to control values. However, papillomatosis of the urinary bladder was found in 4 out of 30 rats (13%) in the group given 1000 mg/kg/day ETBE, and soft stones in the urinary bladder were found in 3 out of these 4 rats. The results thus demonstrated that ETBE did not exert promotional activity on urinary bladder carcinogenesis. However, papillomatosis of the urinary bladder developed in small numbers of the rats given ETBE at 1000 mg/kg/day but not in rats given 500 mg/kg/day or lower doses.     

Experiments on triaxial mechanical properties of soft coal containing gas

Taking briquette specimens composed by soft coal with outbursting trends as research object, systematic research of the influence on triaxial mechanical properties of soft coal containing gas caused by confining pressure and gas pressure is done. The results show that confining pressure can significantly affect mechanical properties of soft coal containing gas, the compression phase of soft coal containing gas is obvious and the triaxial strength is increased gradually as confining pressure is increased; the influence on elastic modulus and shape of stress-strain curve is not obvious. The triaxial strength of soft coal containing gas shows decrease trend as gas pressure is increased; the influence on strength of soft coal containing gas caused by gas pressure is obvious when the confining pressure is smaller, but it is not obvious when the confining pressure is bigger. the influence caused by gas pressure on elastic modulus and deformation of yield step is not obvious; gas pressure has not only obvious mechanical effects,but also have chemical action on soft coal containing gas; stress-strain curve of soft coal containing gas can be expressed by conic, the influence caused by gas pressure can be considered as equivalent confining pressure effects.     

不同树龄油茶林分中土壤养分的变化特征及对细根生物量的影响

以岑溪软枝油茶(Cenxi soft branch Camellia oleifera)无性系林分为研究对象,分析幼龄期(2年生)、结果初期(5年生)和盛产期(8年生) 3种林分中土壤养分的变化特征及对细根生物量的影响。结果表明:3种油茶林分中土壤养分总量差异显著,2年生油茶林分中有机质和水解性氮含量最高,5年油茶林分中有效磷含量最高,8年生油茶林分中速效钾含量最高。水平方向上,4种土壤养分在不同林地中分布较为均匀;垂直方向上,4种养分主要分布在土壤中上层0～30 cm处,整体上元素含量随着土层深度的加深而减少。偏相关分析表明:水解性氮对细根生物量的作用主要表现在40～60 cm土层;有效磷细根生物量的影响主要体现在10～40 cm土层,表现为不同程度的正相关性;速效钾对细根生物量的影响主要体现在10～20 cm土层中,表现为显著的负相关。有机质和有效磷与细根生物量呈极显著相关。